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"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul, can always count on the support of Paul." George Bernard Shaw

Saturday, February 27, 2010

How good are we at predicting tomorow's weather?

The same climate models that are being “fine-tuned” to predict future global temperatures predicted that the tsunami waves today would hit the Eastern Hawaiian shores at 4:05PM (Eastern time).  But of course the first wave did not hit the shore until 5:00PM (55 minutes late).  And these models did not predict waves that were only three feet high.

Just an example of the difficulty in predicting the future via computer models.  Little mistakes can get magnified after millions of iterations and what is a relatively accurate predition for the next 15 minutes get quite inaccurate eight hours later and not very credible at all ten years from now.

So when you start thinking about the Al Gore’s climate predictions take them with a grain of salt.  Check how accurate they are at predicting tomorrow’s weather first.

Posted via email from John's posterous

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