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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Predicting the technology future

Arthur C. Clarke, the science fiction writer, identified what he called the "three laws of prediction," reflecting an optimistic view of ingenuity: 1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong; 2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture past them into the impossible; and 3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.(1)

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